Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
